News: West Asia Conflict May Cool Indian Buying in Dubai Property-01-03-2026

Indian investment in Dubai real estate could moderate if the uncertainty created by the Iran-US-Israel ’war’ drags on, according to experts, who expect buyers to hold back from closing deals until the picture is clearer.

Supply adds to the risk. One expert, who did not want to be quoted by name, said around 120,000 units are expected to enter the Dubai market this year, about double the typical annual supply of 60,000-65,000 units. If sales slow, the effect on pricing could show up over the next couple of quarters, the expert said.

Sandeep Mangla, Managing Director, Forteasia Realty Pvt Ltd, said the immediate aftermath of geopolitical tension tends to produce hesitation, not panic. Buyers may delay closings, reassess their risk exposure or bargain harder, and transactional and speculative activity may dip. Over the longer term, he said, capital tends to move into stable markets, and Dubai continues to draw high-net-worth individuals from Europe and Asia looking for capital preservation, stable returns and regulatory clarity.

Aman Gupta, Director, RPS Group, agreed that capital is repositioned during such crises and does not vanish. He said Dubai is increasingly seen as a geopolitical hedge in global property portfolios because of its dollar-pegged currency, tax advantages and residency-linked investment frameworks.

Experts cautioned that if volumes slow, pricing pressure may emerge, particularly in speculative or off-plan segments. Some moderation in sentiment could follow even if the conflict de-escalates, they said, as NRI and overseas investors reassess exposure depending on how alliances evolve and how long tensions last. Across the Middle East, buyers may wait and watch and seek to renegotiate terms, especially in secondary segments, where price revisions or discounts of around 3-7% may become more common.

Indians are consistently among the leading investor groups in Dubai and accounted for nearly 23% of foreign property transactions there in 2025. Experts attribute this to the absence of income and capital gains taxes, currency diversification, residency-linked options including the UAE Golden Visa, world-class infrastructure and an established institutional tenant base. Rental yields are around 7-9%, compared with the 2-4% typical of major Indian cities, they say.